India’s sugar output for the 2025-26 sugar season (October-September) faces significant risk with early official data showing a marginal decline in sugarcane acreage. While initial figures indicate a slight dip in cultivated area, weather and rainfall patterns, coupled with ongoing agricultural challenges, pose a threat to overall sugar production, potentially reducing it from 2024-25 levels.
As of the first week of May, sugarcane acreage stood at 5.31 million hectares (mh), a slight decrease from 5.34 mh a year ago. This cane will be crushed during the upcoming 2025-26 season.
Uttar Pradesh, India’s largest sugar-producing state, has seen its sugarcane area reach 2.79 mh by May 8, down from 2.88 mh a year ago. While weekly updates for UP can differ from final estimates due to various factors including mandi arrivals and mill usage, the Agriculture Ministry’s final acreage data for 2024-25 also showed a decline in UP to 2.59 mh from 2.65 mh in 2023-24.
Conversely, Maharashtra and Karnataka, crucial contributors to India’s sugar output alongside Uttar Pradesh (together accounting for over 80 per cent of total production), reported higher sugarcane acreage at 1.15 mh (from 1.05 mh) and 0.35 mh (from 0.33 mh) respectively.
However, even with higher acreage in Karnataka in 2024-25, the state’s sugar production in the ongoing season dropped to 4.04 million tonnes (mt) as of May 31, significantly down from 5.14 mt a year ago. This stark example highlights that increased acreage alone doesn’t guarantee higher output, especially when adverse conditions strike. Marginal declines in sugarcane sowing have also been reported in Bihar, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, and Haryana.
While progressive acreage data is subject to revision until the end of the monsoon season in October, past trends demonstrate its limitations. Last year, progressive coverage data continuously projected higher sugarcane acreage, only to be significantly revised downwards in the final estimates. This suggests that current modest increases in acreage in some states might not translate into a robust national yield.
Beyond acreage, several critical risks threaten the current crop. Agriculture scientists have identified heavy rainfall, prolonged waterlogging, and pest attacks as key concerns. Despite advisories to switch from the susceptible CO-0238 variety, many farmers in Uttar Pradesh have continued cultivating it, making their crops vulnerable to Red Rot disease, which has caused widespread damage in recent years.
While a state official in Uttar Pradesh noted successful interventions against early pest attacks in April-May due to timely government action and farmer response to advisories, he expressed hope for a normal monsoon season. However, even “normal” rainfall predictions by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for June-September in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Karnataka, which are projected to receive “above normal” rainfall, come with a caveat. The crucial factor observed in the 2024 monsoon season, despite normal to above-normal precipitation, was the highly uneven monthly distribution of rainfall, which played a significant role in reducing sugarcane yields. This uneven distribution remains a substantial threat to the 2025-26 crop, potentially negating any benefits from slightly increased acreage in some regions.
Despite these risks, the USDA has optimistically predicted India’s sugar output to jump over 25 percent to 35.3 mt during 2025-26 from 28 mt in the previous year, basing its estimate on favorable weather and increased area. However, the domestic sugar industry currently expects production in the 2024-25 season not to exceed 26.2 mt (excluding ethanol diversion), with output at 25.74 mt up to mid-May, significantly lower than the 31.95 mt net sugar output (excluding ethanol) in the 2023-24 season.
This substantial drop in the current season underscores the vulnerability of India’s sugar production to various factors beyond initial acreage figures, reinforcing the central argument that India’s sugar output for 2025-26 remains precariously at risk due to the confluence of subtle acreage declines in key regions, persistent pest and disease challenges, and the unpredictable, potentially detrimental, patterns of monsoon rainfall.
Published on June 8, 2025