Corn (maize) prices will likely remain bearish this year due to robust global production, mainly in the US, Brazil and India, various agencies have said.
Research agency BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, said the market sentiment is underscored by Commodity Futures Trading Commission data, which show money managers holding a net short position of 182,282 contracts as of June 24, 2025. This is a sharp reversal from a net long of 74,607 contracts at the end of the first quarter.
Food and Agriculture Organisation’s Agricultural Marketing Information System (AMIS) said it has raised 2025 production further, boosted by higher forecasts in Brazil and India. “The production is expected to increase by 3.8 per cent above the 2024 level to a new record high,” it said.
Price forecast
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said global corn production in 2025-26 is forecast higher with a larger crop for India. Global trade is unchanged, as are global imports, it said.
“We have revised our 2025 average price forecast for second-month CBOT-listed corn to $4.40 a bushel, down from our previous projection of $4.60. As of July 1, year-to-date prices have averaged $4.659,” said BMI.
However, it said the market has faced pronounced downward pressure in Q2 2025, with prices ending the quarter 12.4 per cent lower quarter-on-quarter, with prices settling at the July 1 close at $4.06 a bushel.
The USDA said the US season-average farm price would be $4.20 per bushel. Currently, corn December futures on the Chicago Board of Trade are ruling at $4.13-3/4 per bushel.
Supply concerns
“With the approaching 2025-26 US harvest and expectations of a bumper crop, the near-term outlook remains bearish. Nonetheless, while the market’s focus remains on US harvest developments, emerging supply concerns in other regions — such as Europe — have begun to lend some price support,” said BMI.
“In the southern hemisphere, harvesting is progressing in Argentina and Brazil. In the northern hemisphere, sowing is wrapping up under mostly favourable conditions,” said AMIS.
BMI said despite forecasts of record global output, the balance is expected to remain in deficit for 2025-26, albeit narrowly. This suggests that while the imminent US harvest may weigh on prices, periods of tighter market conditions later in the year and into early 2026 are possible.
AMIS said utilisation for 2025-26 has been scaled up for several countries, including Brazil, India and Mexico. It would be 0.6 per cent above the 2024-25 level. Trade in 2025-26 (July-June) is expected to decline by 2 per cent from the 2024-25 level, reflecting lower import demand.
The USDA said global trade is forecast higher in 2024-25 , though global imports are essentially unchanged. China and Japan are forecast to import less, but Turkey and Indonesia may buy more.
Tight stocks
BMI said tight stocks among major exporters will keep traders attentive to harvest progress, and the heavily short positioning in the market increases the risk of price volatility should production challenges arise. “Furthermore, ongoing US-China trade discussions could present a source of upside risk, as any agreement to purchase US agricultural products could provide additional support to prices. Overall, while current fundamentals point toward easing prices in the near term, persistent tightness among key exporters leaves the market susceptible to abrupt, short-term rallies should sentiment shift,” it said.
The research agencies projected global corn production for the 2025-26 season to reach a record 1.3 billion tonnes, up 3.7 per cent year-on-year. US harvest is forecast at a record high of 400 million tonnes for 2025-26. Though beginning stocks are set to fall 22.6 per cent year-on-year to 34.7 million tonnes, end-season stocks are forecast to rebound to 44.5 million tonnes, up 28.2 per cent over the season, said the USDA.
BMI said it estimates global corn consumption in the 2025-26 season to reach 1.27 billion tonnes, up 1.5 per cent from 2024-25. “Among major consumers, we project Brazil’s corn demand to rise by 2.5 per cent in 2025-26, reaching 93.3 million tonnes, driven by robust feed demand and higher use in ethanol production,” it said
BMI said its baseline view remains one of continued price pressure, but risks to the upside cannot be discounted.
Published on July 11, 2025