Winds are shown blowing straight without a rain-supporting circular motion (low-pressure area) over both Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal until June 13, according to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.
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www.meteologix.com/in
Wednesday’s well-marked low-pressure area over north-west Bay of Bengal intensified twice into a depression and briefly into a deep depression (next only to cyclone category) on Thursday, before crossing West Bengal coast towards noon.
A remnant lay 40 km south-west of Canning (West Bengal); 130 km west-south-west of Mongla (Bangladesh); and 190 km west of Khepupara (Bangladesh), India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. It will have weakened into a depression by evening.
Heavy rain likely
Extremely heavy rainfall is likely over Assam and Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura and Arunachal Pradesh on Friday during the weakening stages of the system. Isolated exceptionally heavy rainfall is likely over Meghalaya the same day.
Elsewhere in North-East India, the IMD has forecast fairly widespread to widespread rainfall regime will prevail during next seven days. Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over hills of West Bengal and Sikkim for four days; over Assam and Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura for seven days.
Rain for West Coast
The main rain-driving system may be weakening, but it would still be able to trigger isolated extremely heavy rainfall over the West Coast along Kerala and Mahe. Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds are likely here for next four days as well as over Karnataka. Rains will be isolated to scattered over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, Rayalaseema and Telangana for three days, the IMD said.
May not revive soon
Recently launched Bharat Forecast System of IMD as well as global models concur that weakening of deep depression and gradual cessation of rain activity may likely signal end of the onset stage of the monsoon. They do not indicate a date when rains are likely to revive over the West Coast next, nearly replicating onset dynamics.
US Climate Prediction Centre goes one step beyond suggesting monsoon may not revive even by second week of June, based on lack of any supportive mechanism, such as a weather-making Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave passing over the ocean.
Published on May 29, 2025