Angru thunderstorms (in dark red spots) hung over parts of Vidarbha, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh as well as West Madhya Pradesh on Monday even as India Meteorological Department issued a depression alert over Bay of Bengal.
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www.meteologix.com/in
A fresh low-pressure area that tossed itself up over the Bay of Bengal has become ‘well-marked’ over the west-central and adjoining northwest Bay and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh-south Odisha coasts on Monday morning, and is expected to intensify into a depression before crossing south Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coast by Thursday morning.
Various numerical weather models, including of India Meteorological Department (IMD), had suspected a depression was in the making after revival of the monsoon over East and Central India, and it was only a question of when and where. While the previous low was a fit case, it was usurped by fresh activity brewing over the Bay in the form of the current of the current system.
More ‘low’s in making?
The Bay is forecast to remain in an ‘excited’ state for the rest of the month (August), normally the second rainiest after July, and could probably go to make good the shortfall of rainfall during the recess earlier in the month, if model predictions are anything to go by. They see scope for at least two more low more low-pressure areas to spin up from the Bay and make their way in.
The monsoon trough now on Monday passed through Naliya, Jalgaon, Brahmapuri, Jagdalpur, the center of the well-marked ‘low’ over west-central and adjoining north-west Bay and north Andhra Pradesh-south Odisha coasts. Its eastern end dipped south-eastward to into east Central Bay. The eastern end anchored in the Bay waters suggest it is game for another ‘low.’
Projected timelines
IMD’s numerical model predictions point to prospects of successive ‘low’ formations to take place in the two weeks that may see off the depression towards Central India and Mumbai-Konkan coast. The first one may show over the north-east Bay off West Bengal waters by August 24, followed by the next exactly over the same place towards the end of the month (by August 28).
‘Shear zone’ reveals
This would mean continued heavy rainfall for East-Central, Central and West India, including Mumbai-Konkan and Gujarat likely for as many days. Already, the IMD located a cyclonic circulation at work over north-east Arabian Sea and adjoining Gujarat, with a monsoon ‘shear zone’ running across Mumbai, Ahmednagar, Beed, Nanded-Waghela into Bellampalli (Telangana) and Jagdalpur (Chhattisgarh). An offshore trough lay extended form south Konkan to north Kerala coast, indicating active monsoon conditions.
Monsoon playground
The ‘shear zone’ represents an area in the higher atmosphere awash with moisture, and sets up the perfect playground for monsoon systems (low-pressure areas or depressions) to thrive in the lower levels. The zone assures the moisture-laden systems longer life as they meander their way across the track to either Konkan-Mumbai or Gujarat, so long as it lasts.
Extreme heavy rain
Given this, IMD has had warned of extremely heavy rainfall over Konkan and Goa and the ghat areas of Madhya Maharashtra on Monday and extended it to Tuesday as well; and over west Gujarat both on Tuesday and Wednesday. Extremely heavy rainfall is also likely over Coastal Karnataka on these days; Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam; South Interior Karnataka; south Odisha and south Chhattisgarh and on Monday; while North Interior Karnataka may receive extremely heavy rainfall on Wednesday.
Published on August 18, 2025