The south-west monsoon remained stalled for a fifth day on Tuesday along a track linking Mumbai with Ahilyanagar, Adilabad, Bhawanipatna, Puri, Sandhead Island, and Balurghat across West, Peninsular and East and North-East India.
European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) says it can be expected to resume full throttle during first two weeks of July, normally the rainiest of the four monsoon months, with the Bay of Bengal likely springing back to life with a circulation popping up off the Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coasts.
Fits and starts
India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicates the possibility of monsoon trying to revive in fits and starts in between during the current month (June). This will happen with a trough from an incoming western disturbance dipping south across south-west Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and coastal Andhra Pradesh.
Dry and hot air (deep red and yellow) prevailed over North-West, West, and Central India while a weak rain regime (blue/white) fended it off over South Peninsula as monsoon stalled for a fifth day on Tuesday.
| Photo Credit: www.meteologix.com/in
The trough is likely to emerge with a monsoon-friendly cyclonic circulation over the Bay off Andhra Pradesh coto allow rain-bearing easterlies to fan into East India, adjoining Central India and parts of South Peninsula.
Another lull?
Resulting rain cover may extend to Kerala , Karnataka, Rayalaseema, Telangana, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and parts of east Madhya Pradesh. The South Peninsula may, however, dry up in the following week (June 16 to 23), according to a ECMWF outlook, bringing another lull in rain activity over the region.
Parts of North-West India and adjoining Central India (Delhi, Haryana, Chandigarh, Uttar Pradesh and west Madhya Pradesh) will witness scattered showers during this phase, presumably from an interaction between a western disturbance and monsoon easterlies as the Bay circulation hums along.
Fresh Bay activity
Towards the last week of June, fresh activity is indicated for south-east coast off Tamil Nadu and adjoining Coastal Andhra Pradesh before culminating in a broad revival of monsoon in the first week of July. The rains will further expand to Goa and Konkan coasts, Gujarat and West Rajasthan during the second week of July.
Published on June 3, 2025