(From left) IMD’s Director-General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, M Ravichandran, Secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, and RK Jenamani, Head, National Weather Forecasting Centre, IMD, addressing the media
| Photo Credit:
PIB
Dismissing any concern over the earlier onset of the monsoon, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday said there will be more rainfall during the June-September season than predicted earlier in April. The rainfall will be evenly distributed all across the country. Barring Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and Meghalaya, all other States will receive normal or above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season.
The country is likely to receive 106 per cent of the long period average (LPA) of 87 cm rainfall during the monsoon season, IMD said while revising its April forecast that predicted rainfall to be 105 per cent of normal. The updated forecast comes on the heels of some experts expressing concern that the early onset of the monsoon could lead to deficient rainfall
Rainfall between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the 50-year average of 87 cm is considered ‘normal’, and between 105 per cent and 110 per cent is considered normal for the country as a whole during the season. But the definition of normal and above normal is different, according to the meteorological subdivision as well as for the one-month period.
State-wise forecast
Releasing the state-wise forecast of monsoon rainfall in the season, IMD’s Director-General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said: “Though the accuracy in the long-range forecast (for four-month period) of a small geographical area (state) is less compared to a large area (country as a whole), it has been decided to release the prediction, which may be helpful for the agriculture sector.”
He said whatever rainfall has happened after the onset of the monsoon is a “bonus” as the seasonal rainfall is calculated from June 1. However, he admitted that there may be a “hiatus” after some days as the monsoon progress is “never rapid”. Some global models have indicated the progress in the monsoon to weaken after June 4.
Commenting on the regional distribution of the monsoon in the season, he said above-normal rainfall, quantitatively more than 106 per cent of LPA, is likely this year in central, South and the monsoon core zone (rainfed areas), while normal to above normal rainfall, quantitatively 92-108 per cent of LPA, is expected in the north-west region comprising Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and other States. But, there will be below-normal, less than 94 per cent of average, rainfall in the east and north-east meteorological subdivisions, he said.
Some isolated areas in Punjab, Haryana, Kerala and Tamil Nadu may experience below-normal rainfall, IMD said.
BFS for forecast
M Ravichandran, Secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, said that the quantity of rainfall is so high in the north-east as compared to other regions that even after below normal rainfall, it could be still more than another region.
Mohapatra said India is likely to receive above-normal rainfall in June, which will keep maximum temperatures in check in most parts of the country. Though maximum temperatures could be below normal, the minimum (night) temperature could be above normal next month.
“The rainfall in June is expected to be 108 per cent of the long period average (LPA) of 166.9 mm. Most parts of the country will have normal to above normal rainfall. But, some parts of southern peninsular, north-west and north-east regions may witness below normal rainfall next month,” he said.
Ravichandran said the Bharat Forecast System (BFS), unveiled on May 26, will be used in the weather predictions during the monsoon season. But he clarified that it was meant for short (2 days) and medium (1-2 weeks) range forecast.
The south-west monsoon reached Kerala on May 24, marking its earliest arrival over the Indian mainland since 2009, when it reached on May 23.
Published on May 27, 2025