During August, the monthly average minimum temperatures are expected to be normal to above normal over most parts of the country
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SUSHIL KUMAR VERMA
The South-West Monsoon delivered a six per cent surplus rainfall over the country in the first two months of the four-month rainy season. On Thursday, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast that the rainfall will be normal to above normal during August and September.
The actual rainfall for the country as a whole during June-July was 474.3 mm against the normal of 445.8 mm, an increase of 6.4 per cent. North-West India received 21.1 per cent more rain during June-July, while Central India received 22.9 per cent more during the period. The East and North-East India received22 per cent deficit precipitation, while there was a 2.3 per cent deficiency in South Peninsula during the period.
“The monsoon has been good, so far. We are expecting good rainfall activity in the second half, just like in the first half,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director-General of Meteorology, IMD.
Even distribution
For August, the rainfall activity is projected to be normal to above normal in the range of 94-106 per cent of the long period average (LPA), except in parts of Central India such as Chhattisgarh and some parts of Madhya Pradesh and in parts of Kerala and Karnataka, where the precipitation is expected to be below normal. The LPA of rainfall, based on the data from 1971 to 2020, is 254.9 mm for August and 422.8 mm for August and September. “While rainfall will be normal in August, the September rain will be above normal,” he said.
Mohapatra said the rainfall distribution during June-July has been good, except in the North Eastern region, foothills of Himalayas in parts of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh and also in Tamil Nadu and adjoining areas. As a result of above normal rains, the kharif crop sowing and the reservoir level status is good, he said.
The area under kharif as of July 25 was 5 per cent up at 829.44 lakh hectares (lh) against 797.69 lh in the year-ago period.
IMD is now launching block-wise rainfall monitoring scheme this year, Mohapatra said. During 1992, IMD started the district wise rainfall monitoring scheme using around 2,000 rain gauge stations. Now the rain gauge station network is extended to more than 6,700 stations, he said.
ENSO, IOD neutral
Mohapatra said the neutral ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) conditions are likely to continue during the remaining part of the monsoon season. The neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions, observed currently in the Indian Ocean, are likely to turn into weak negative IOD condition at the end of the monsoon season.
During August, the monthly average minimum temperatures are expected to be normal to above normal over most parts of the country. However, below normal minimum temperatures are likely over some parts of northwest India, according to IMD.
After receiving 9 per cent surplus rain in June, the total rainfall in July was 5 per cent above normal and in the second half of July, the actual rainfall was 150.8 mm, which was 1 per cent less than normal. The country had received 143.5 mm rainfall during July 1-15, which was 11.3 per cent more than the long period average (LPA) of 128.9 mm.
Published on July 31, 2025